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Here’s Who Gets Crushed If Greece Goes Bust

Source: Bank for International Settlements (via The Telegraph) JP Morgan (via The New York Times)

1. Japanese banks hold $432 million in Greek debt

2. Spanish banks hold $540 million in Greek debt

3. U.S. banks hold $1.5 billion in Greek debt
4. Italian banks hold $2.35 billion in Greek debt

5. UK banks hold $3.4 billion in Greek debt

6. French banks hold $14.96 billion in Greek debt
7. German banks hold $22.65 billion in Greek debt
8. Greek banks hold $62.8 billion in Greek debt
9. But banks in Europe have been working to cut their exposures

10. Greek Banks Downgraded by S&P

11. Moody’s expected to downgrade Soc Gen, BNP Paribas, and Credit Agricole this week

12. Romania and Bulgaria’s banking sectors, and sovereigns, highly exposed to Greek banks. If Greece’s banking sector is slammed in a default, the result could be a lack of funding for the   Romanian and Bulgarian sovereigns, private enterprises, or worse, according to Nomura

13. Austria banks have significant positions in Eastern Europe. like Erste Bank, have positions in Eastern Europe which may come under threat if those countries slowdown as a result of a Greek default.

14. The ECB holds a significant amount of Greek debt. estimated that the ECB owned about €40 billion in Greek bond debt after it had been buying Greek bonds in the open market for about a year. A 50% of write-down on Greek debt could cause €35 billion in losses to the ECB. The ECB had also lent an additional €91 billion to Greek banks.

15. If a restructuring does occur, the risk trade will be clobbered. JP Morgan: There will be a flight to US treasuries and yields will fall there as a result of renewed risk aversion. This will widen spreads on high grade corporate bonds as a result.

16. Other countries will have a much harder time entering the Euro.

17. ECB: Rate hike cycle may be stalled. The ECB kept interest rates steady at its last meeting. Intended to curb inflationary pressures on the eurozone, rate hikes may have to be halted if a Greek restructuring damages the continent’s banking system.

18. FYROM and Albania will be hit too. Morgan Stanley: When the Greek economy slides, foreign workers from Albania and Bulgaria may lose jobs and stop sending home remittances. Also, FDI to Macedonia (7% of its GDP) and Bulgaria (8% of GDP) will decrease.

 

  The countries that report data to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) are:

In Europe: Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom

Rest of the World: Australia, Canada, Chile, India, Japan, United States, Chinese Taipei, Singapore

Country

Total lending exposure to Greece (millions)

Total Government debt exposure to Greece (millions)

Total of 24 countries 145,783 54,196
European banks 136,317 52,258
Non-European banks 9,466 1,938
France 56,740 14,960
Germany 33,974 22,651
Italy 4,085 2,345
Japan 1,631 432
Spain 974 540
UK 14,060 3,408
US 7,318 1,505

Source: BIS Quarterly Review

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